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EDITORIAL: Pierre is in a political pickle (Sept. 2025)

December 15th, 2025 · No Comments

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre successfully ranted and rhymed his way into an almost certain win in the last federal election. The politics of fear and division took him a long way but then left him high and dry. Before the election, he finally got what he was demanding, the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister. It turned into a bittersweet event for the wannabe prime minister.

Enter from stage right, Mark Carney. Elected as Liberal leader, he automatically became prime minister. His first act was to eliminate the consumer carbon tax. This is when things really started to unravel for Poilievre. With no policy ideas of their own, the Conservatives were banking on a negative campaign of “Fire Trudeau, Axe the Tax, Stop the Crime, Build the Homes.” 

With the loss of two key planks of his negative campaign, he was forced to pretend they were still there. The Conservative leader mused Carney was really the same as Trudeau, which clearly no one was buying, and that the carbon tax was still lurking there waiting to bite the consumer. Bizarrely, Poilievre then tried to argue that the federal cabinet lacked the authority to halt the tax. Apparently, Poilievre needed to get elected right away and wanted the optic of removing the tax, but Carney robbed him of his thunder. That cagey Carney.

Poilievre’s “Stop the Crime” rhyme has a basic fact problem that anyone who can google can see. According to the most recent numbers from Statistics Canada, reports of violent crime in Canada from 2023-2024 fell 4.02 per cent, and nonviolent crime fell 5.7 per cent over the same period. Yes, there is still crime, but less of it to stop.

The final plank, “Build the Houses,” has a constitutional problem. Housing is a provincial responsibility which is shared with municipalities. Yes, the federal government can incentivize building but can’t really be in the driver’s seat. 

According to the CBC Poll Tracker, in January 2025, the Conservatives held a 44.8 per cent lead in the polls among decided voters compared to the Liberals under Justin Trudeau at 21.9 per cent. That’s quite a margin to blow and still expect to lead the party, but leader he still is, at least until January, when there will be a mandatory review of his leadership. 

The pickle for Pierre is to get himself reconfirmed as the leader by a sizeable majority of his base while still be seen as a prime minister in waiting. This will be a difficult task as he will need to promise one thing to the party and subsequently another to Canadians. These are in conflict. Of course, this may be moot, as it’s not clear if becoming likeable and reasonable is even in his DNA.

According to a recent Spark Insights national survey, most voters now prefer pragmatic leaders, as opposed to ideological ones, by a margin of 4-1. Most voters, 69 per cent, see Mark Carney as a pragmatist, including surprisingly 55 per cent of Albertans. 

Mark Carney appears to have outflanked the Conservative leader as the practical get-it-done leader while always sounding reasonable, competent, and reassuring. Carney summons Canadian pride whereas Poilievre encourages self-loathing with his frequent go-to line “Canada is broken.” Most voters, 55 per cent, see Pierre Poilievre as an ideologue, not a fixer. 

Carney enjoys a 67 per cent approval rating and is not someone just playing to his base. He has successfully revealed himself as someone who treats all Canadians as his base. For the Conservative leader to get re-elected by his party he will need to continue playing himself, the punk throwing snowballs at the bus, but that won’t get him elected as prime minister.

As this political theatre evolves, the question is whether Pierre Poilievre will. 

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