Doug Ford is adamant that he is not rushing an election 18 months ahead of schedule to get ahead of an anticipated federal election this spring. He insists he needs a “mandate from the people” to face off against U.S. President Donald Trump in a trade war. This is both unnecessary and delusional.

The PCs have a healthy majority with 79 seats including the Speaker. The New Democrats have 28 seats, the Liberals nine. There are six Independents and two Greens in the 124- seat legislature. According to provincial law, the next election should be in June 2026. This is when Ford’s “mandate” should expire and is then retested at the polls. This election will cost Ontario taxpayers an estimated $150 million.

In respect to the fight against U.S. tariffs, there is nothing for the electorate to choose;  there are no competing views between the parties. There is already a consensus that some combination of diplomacy, education, retaliation, and support to Ontarians who are harmed in a trade war is necessary; it is impractical to expect voters to  define the specifics of the strategy. 

Could it be there are other elephants in the room that Ford would like to distract the voters from? 

The pending federal election should give him pause. If the polls are right, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is elected, it would likely harm Ford’s chances of being reelected, hence the need to beat Poilievre to the polls. Ontarians tend to opt for different parties in office, provincially and federally, at the same time. According to Underhill’s balance theory this has been the case for 71 of the past 82 years, or 88 per cent of the time. This would explain why the federal Conservative leader has recently been in a frenzied panic to have a snap election of his own. 

Then there is the ongoing criminal investigation by the RCMP’s elite “O” division into the $8.28 billion land swap for portions of the Greenbelt. The premier’s inner sanctum was deeply involved in the smelly deals. The extent of Ford’s personal involvement or benefit is unknown. It is known that Ford’s promise in the last election to not develop any part of the Greenbelt was a mandate he was ready to renege on. So much for mandates. 

According to the RCMP’s 2021 annual report the average length of police investigations of this type is 1.6 years. If that timeline applies here, expect that investigation to conclude by March of this year. How curious is it that the premier choose Feb. 27 as an early election date?

The threat of a trade war is a perfect opportunity for Ford to talk about something other than his provincial responsibilities to build affordable homes, ensure enough doctors and nurses, and fix schools that are crumbling. 

It is naïve to believe that Ford will be sitting across the table from Donald Trump anytime soon negotiating a trade deal; that’s the job of the prime minister. If he is reelected with 10 more seats in the legislature, it is doubtful the Americans would even notice or care. Trade agreements or wars are negotiated or fought by sovereign nations, not provinces. 

The premier seems to have a hard time sticking to his knitting. Very recently he thought it would be a good idea to enact province-wide legislation to remove Bloor Street bikes lanes, a municipal responsibility. He’s mused about buying Alaska. He has plans, without a mandate, to build a tunnel under highway 401 at an estimated cost of $50 billion. The people of Ontario never endorsed any of this.

The looming trade war between Canada and the U.S. is a golden opportunity for Ford to distract voters.  His track record, parts of which are under criminal investigation, will not be scrutinized if this election is about a trade war. He wants four more years in power and does not want his performance in the last three to be talked about. Let’s hear what Ford has to say about truly provincial responsibilities.