Liberals take new riding of University-Rosedale

Polling University-Rosedale

Chrystia Freeland, Liberal: 27,849 (49.8%)

Jennifer Hollett, NDP: 15,988 (28.6%)

Karim Jivraj, Conservative: 9,790 (17.5%)

Nick Wright, Green Party: 1,641 (2.9%)

Jesse Waslowski, Libertarian: 233 (0.4%)

Simon Luisi, Animal Alliance/Environment Voters: 126 (0.2%)

David Berlin, The Bridge: 122 (0.2%)

Steve Rutchinski, Marxist-Leninist: 51 (0.1%)

By Dilara Kurturan

The red wave that washed over Canada on Oct. 19 and brought Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party to power swept up University-Rosedale in its wake.

Liberal candidate Chrystia Freeland took nearly 50 per cent of the vote, winning 27,849 ballots, a big margin over New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate Jennifer Hollett, who received 15,988 votes, or 28.6 per cent of those cast. Conservative candidate Karim Jivraj won 9,790 votes (17.5 per cent) — two-thirds of what Hollett received — while the Green Party only garnered 1,641 votes (2.9 per cent), with the four fringe candidates taking a combined total of 9 per cent of the vote.

The results came only weeks after a Forum Research telephone poll showed the Liberal and NDP candidates neck and neck, with the riding separated by only a one per cent margin.

Forum Research post-election polling suggested that one-quarter of voters nationwide changed their allegiance during the course of the long campaign, including 35 per cent of those who voted for the NDP for the first time in the 2011 federal election. Forum’s research also suggests that 29 per cent of those who switched to the Liberal Party did so because of the promise for infrastructure spending, while those who switched to the NDP did so because of that party’s promise to balance the budget, with a lesser number switching because of the Liberal’s deficit spending promise.

Such flip-flopping is not unfamiliar to the area, which as the former riding of Trinity-Spadina has long seen a back and forth between NDP and Liberal rule. Before the riding redistribution, Liberal candidate Adam Vaughan came out on top with 53.6 per cent of the vote during the 2014 by-election. But the old riding also saw wins for the NDP: in 2011, that party’s Olivia Chow, the incumbent since 2006, beat Liberal candidate Christine Innes by 20,000 votes. That year also reflected results across the nation, and mirrored the Liberals’ historic loss in the federal election. However, in a 2014 by-election necessitated by Olivia Chow’s resignation, the Liberals easily won back the seat with Adam Vaughan as their candidate. Vaughan, who ran for the Liberals in Spadina-Fort York, defeated Olivia Chow this time around, as that riding and University-Rosedale once again reflected the national picture: a Liberal win that resulted from a 148-seat gain, the largest increase by a political party in Canadian elections.